Thursday, October 30, 2008

REG-A-NATION

Consider the 2008 Economic Crisis:

A. When the Ratings Agencies (Moody, Standard & Poor, etc.) were de-regulated and, thus, allowed to market themselves directly to bond issuers (Lehman Bros., Morgan Stanley, etc.), they won contracts by guaranteeing "AAA" ratings.

B. These bogus "AAA" ratings created a demand for more bond securities, specifically mortgage backed securities (bundled mortgages).

C. This mortgage backed security demand lowered the guidelines for home loans, so more could get in the system -- such zero-down adjustable loan offers were not only taken by those who sought to live beyond their means or pay down debt through refinance, but they were also taken by speculators who quickly ramped-up to create the "real estate flip" market.

D. This ticking time-bomb of people who got zero-down loans with a future interest-rate hike adjustment, blew-up when the real estate market bubble burst: when people could no longer sell (or refinance) their properties at a better rate before their loan-rate adjusted. Thus, many defaulted because their properties were worth less than what they owed.

E. Seeing the potential of such a time-bomb exploding, mortgage backed securities issuers (Lehman Bros., Morgan Stanley, etc.) protected their positions by obtaining insurance: entering into credit default swap agreements.

F. Because the credit default swap market was not regulated as insurance (no capital reserve required by issuer), it became its own bubble market, resulting in bond issuers protecting themselves over and over and over again to the tune of $60 trillion, for a total of $12 tillion in market debt.

G. So, when the real estate bubble burst and, thus, home owners (mostly speculators) could not make their payments, the mortgage holders could also no longer meet their obligations and, thus, called in their credit default swap agreements. However, as such was leveraged 5:1 (for every $1 lost, $5 was due), there was not enough capital to fulfill the agreements.

H. Thus, the credit crisis resulted because every bank then hoarded their cash in fear that either their loan may not be paid back or that they themselves may need the liquidity if (in fact) the credit market seized up -- a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I. Therefore, banks that found themselves short on cash could no longer meet their daily reserve requirements with short-term loans from other banks. Thus, they (Washington Mutual, Wachovia, etc.) began to default and were forced to either to sell to banks with cash (Bank of America, Wells Fargo, etc.) or go bankrupt -- thankfully, the Fed Reserve agreed to make these short-term bank loans.

J. Finally, to prevent a total melt-down, the Federal Govt. offered to buy-up $700B of the worst $12T debt (the mortgage backed securities) because the Govt. can afford to sit on the properties for 5-20 years until the market restabilizes.


In this light, once (1) the over-valued mortgage backed securities are off the books of the surving banks, (2) the ratings agencies are re-regulated so they can no longer market themselves with bogus high-rating guarantees, and (3) the credit default swap agreements are regulated for what they are (insurance that requires a capital reserve), then the banks won't be so afraid to loan again, as well as will be able to borrow again.

However, to fully stabilize the markets…

What if Mark-to-Market valuation was replaced with a Historical Average valuation model. In other words, banks/institutions could book an average value of a security’s performance on their balance sheets, as opposed to its last trade value. This will prevent bankruptcies and erase a significant systemic problem: the valuation of suddenly unpopular securities. In regards to the 2008 crisis, a mortgage backed security has a value, even if no one wishes to buy it today: the value is the value of the home, which is: more than $0, and less than the highest trade price.

Therefore, if (for example) a mortgage backed security is allowed to be claimed at the average value of its previous year of trading, then its value on a day that no one wants it would be $0 for only 1 of 365 days and more than $0 for the other 364 days. This will lower the value of the security incrementally and, thus, slow its decline, preventing an instant collapse and panic. Thus, the new rule will give such security holders time (in this example, one year) to shore-up the declining value.

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

POLISHERE


POLISPHERE

Consider political preference: "left wing", "right wing"; "far right", "far left"... The debate is always described in linear terms, when in fact political interests can best be described spherically: "Polisphere".

Liberal and Conservative views can be graphed as a Left/Right dichotomy, but Libertarian and Socialist views cannot be described on the same line. This is because each shares core beliefs with their Left/Right counterparts. On this note, when placing the Libertarian view on top and the Socialist view below, we can reference the common interests:

1. Liberals & Libertarians agree that Education should be made available to all People and enjoy Freedom from censorship.

2. Conservatives & Libertarians agree that Money should primarily benefit the Individual earner and enjoy Freedom in global markets.

3. Conservatives & Socialists agree that Law Enforcement should primarily protect Individual property/civil rights and that the nation should provide Security for such rights.

4. Liberals & Socialists agree that basic Healthcare should be available to all People and that the nation should provide Security for such services.

As Centrists consider all these interests reasonable and constitute the "swing vote" that decides elections, their vote generally depends on where they fit in the third dimension: Access vs. Quality. Those with wealth are most concerned about the Quality of essential government services, whereas those who are impoverished are most concerned about Access to such services.

In this light, when single-issues (i.e. Abortion, Gay Rights, etc.) or third-party candidates (i.e. Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, etc.) don't decide elections, they are usually won not by pushing Left/Right or Top/Bottom positions, but by blurring the Access/Quality separation: promising both Quality and Access. At the end of the day, all voters (and Centrists in particular) seek to improve their lives and, thus, Quality of and Access to essential government services are the issues that matter the most.

Therefore, politicians can most easily be criticized for how they succeed or fail to offer Quality and Access: the Clinton Administration was celebrated for creating greater Access to sought services, while preserving Quality. Whereas, both Bush Administrations were plagued by delivering poorer Quality services, which fewer citizens could Access.



MULTIVERSE

Consider four of the great mysteries of our Universe: (1) the Big Bang; (2) Universe Acceleration; (3) Gamma Ray Bursts; and (4) Black Holes. These phenomena can be described with a new model of our Universe: "Multiverse".

Background concepts...

Big Bang: the recognized origin of our Visible Universe -- a massive explosion that spread energy strings in a large plasma cloud, which cooled to create quarks and then Hydrogen, which then coalesced to ignite as stars.

Universe Acceleration: among the great discoveries that were made by the Hubble Telescope include the observation that our Visible Universe is expanding at an ever-increasing speed.

Gamma Ray Burst (GRB): massive explosions that occur every day outside of our Visible Universe from every angle in the sky -- unlike Super Novas, which can only be seen in Visible Galaxies (typically in the Milky Way).

Black Hole: a violent stellar event at the core of every spiral galaxy, which has such gravitational force that it swallows entire galaxies and captures light -- all we can see is a Black Hole that is surrounded by doomed/spiraling stars, including the inner-most stars of our own Milky Way galaxy.

Now consider this...

What if Black Holes were not holes at all. What if they were growing Black Masses. Just as four Hydrogens (atomic weight: 1) fuse to Helium (atomic weight: 4), or seven fuse to Lithium (atomic weight: 7), a Black Mass is simply a growing element that can be cataloged at any point in time on the Periodic Chart (atomic weight: 10 to the "X").

If this were the case, then their growth would be limited only by the material that's available for consumption. Thus, after a galaxy is consumed, then another and another, barring collision by another equal or greater Black Mass, the event could grow/mature to become a Mega Mass.


Therefore, it is my proposition that GRBs are the matter liberation of Black Mass collisions and that Large GRBs are the matter liberation of Mega Mass collisions. Moreover, the Big Bang is to a Large GRB, as the Sun is to a Star: we are the product of one and the observer of the other.

Prediction: our Visible Universe accelerates faster in regions that are in closest proximity to a Mega Mass. Arc measurements of Red Shift will demonstrate a repeatable variance.

ILLUSTRATION

a. Mega Mass (or a mature Black Mass): galactic matter collapsed through fusion.
b. Mega Masses caught it each other's gravity well.
c. Mega Mass collision (Big Bang or GRB), which liberates/redistributes matter.
d. New Visible Universe evolves from liberated matter (strings to quarks to H to stars).
e. Visible Universe pulled apart by Mega Mass neighbors.
f. Mega Mass growth from captured matter (or Visible Universe remnants).